Perhaps, I didn't look up any statistics. The "~" in "~95%" was supposed to indicate my meta uncertainty that this is the precise strength of belief an ideal rationalist should have given evidence observed by me. I am confident that I am closer to the ideal probability than 0% as believed by Kate.

Apparently 45% to 50% of first marriages in America end in divorce, but this does not account for whether the marriages were unhappy. Do you have a source for your assertion? I have not found anything with a quick Google search.