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bentarm comments on Newcomb's problem happened to me - Less Wrong
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I predict with probability ~95% that if statisticians had arbitrarily decided many years ago to use 97% instead of 95% as their standard of proof, then all appearances of 95 and 97 in this comment would be reversed.
How does it change your prediction to learn that I was not considering statisticians' arbitrary standard of proof, but I was thinking about numbers in base ten, and I had considered saying ~90% instead?
Not much for me. I think it about six times more likely that you used base ten numbers to "get to" 95% than it is you came to 95% by coincidence.