= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
David_Gerard comments on Tell Your Rationalist Origin Story - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (399)
This is, in practice, a form of equivocation between epsilon uncertainty and sufficient uncertainty to take seriously as an argument.
Step 2 is the tricky one. I suggest reviewing But There's Still A Chance, Right? Humans are, in general, really bad at feeling the difference between epsilon uncertainty and sufficient uncertainty to be worth taking notice of.
I reviewed your link--thanks, that was interesting.
Maybe we're in agreement. Let me try a more audacious assertion...
All I was saying was that practical demonstration or persuasion takes place within an unquestioned frame of reference. For purposes of the topic at hand, I would say, for example, that using the available evidence, I could convince 9 of 12 jurors under American rules of evidence and jury instructions applicable to civil trials, that Jesus of Nazareth was a flesh and blood historical figure. I think I could do this every week for a year and win 90% of the time. If we change the rules to "establish it beyond a reasonable doubt to 12 of 12 jurors", then my success rate goes way down, obviously.
(Of course, I am assuming that I make no intentional misrepresentations and call only expert witnesses with recognized technical qualifications and unimpeachable character. I.e., no "funny stuff".)
In other words, I am claiming to not be anywhere in the neighborhood of epsilon.
I'm almost entirely unconvinced (somewhat greater than epsilon) that's a useful measure - humans can be convinced of just about anything. But, an upvote for suggesting a measure. Still thinking of what I'd accept as a measure.