Psychohistorian comments on It's not like anything to be a bat - Less Wrong

15 Post author: Yvain 27 March 2010 02:32PM

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Comment author: Psychohistorian 27 March 2010 09:14:54PM -1 points [-]

if you roll a million sided die and get 362,853 then the die must have been fixed because the chance of getting 362,853 is 1-in-a-million!

Were that appropriate, the same mechanism would also defeat the reasoning in this post. While I agree with your ultimate conclusion, using solely the anthropic principle and no additional information, I believe you are compelled to conclude extraterrestrial life does not exist.

Comment author: Nick_Tarleton 27 March 2010 09:26:30PM *  1 point [-]

Were that appropriate, the same mechanism would also defeat the reasoning in this post.

I disagree. There is a natural category (sentience, reflectivity, etc.) that picks out humans over other Earthly animals and leads to a more-than-max-entropy prior for humans being more anthropically special*; this is not the case for either 362,853 or Earth.

* If you accept anthropic reasoning at all, that is. I'm sort of playing devil's advocate in this comment; this post mostly just pushes me further towards biting the bullet of UDT/collapsing epistemology to decision theory.