NihilCredo comments on It's not like anything to be a bat - Less Wrong

15 Post author: Yvain 27 March 2010 02:32PM

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Tags: anthropic consciousness

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Comment author: NihilCredo 17 May 2010 05:28:42PM *  0 points [-]

If the coin was heads then the probability of event "clone #707 is in a green room" is 1/1000. And since, in this case, the clone in the green room is sure to be an anthropic reasoner, the probability of "clone #707 is an anthropic reasoner in a green room" is still 1/1000.

But you know that you are AR in the exact same way that you know that you are in a green room. If you're taking P(BeingInGreenRoom|CoinIsHead)=1/1000, then you must equally take P(AR)=P(AR|CoinIsHead)=P(AR|BeingInGreenRoom)=1/1000.

and P(#707 is AR | coin was tails and #707 is in a green room) is only 1/999.

Why shouldn't it be 1/1000? The lucky clone who gets to retain AR is picked at random among the entire thousand, not just the ones in the more common type of room.

Comment author: AlephNeil 17 May 2010 06:57:02PM 0 points [-]

Doh! Looks like I was reasoning about something I made up myself rather than Jordan's comment.

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