Strange7 comments on It's not like anything to be a bat - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (189)
Perhaps the fact that we are so confused by anthropic reasoning is a priori evidence that we are a very early anthropic reasoners and thus the Doomsday argument is false. Further, not every human is an anthropic reasoner. If the growth rate of anthropic reasoners is less than the growth rate of humans we should then extend the estimation of the lifespan of a human race with anthropic reasoners (and of course this says nothing about the lifespan of humanity without anthropic reasoners).
A handful of powerful anthropic reasoners could enforce a ban on anthropic reasoning: burning books, prohibiting it's teaching and silencing those who came to be anthropic reasoners on their own. If within two generations we could stabilize the anthropic reasoner population at around 35 (say 10 enforcing, 25 to account for enforcement failure) with life spans averaging 100 years that would put us in the final 95% (I think, anyone have an educated estimate of how many anthropic reasoners there have been up to this point in time?) until a permanent solution was reached or humanity began spreading and we would need at least one enforcer for every colony-- but given optimistic longevity scenarios we could still keep the anthropic reasoner population to a minimum. The permanent solution is probably obvious: A singleton could enforce the ban by itself and make itself the last or at least close to last anthropic reasoner in the galaxy.
The above strikes me as obviously insane so there has to be a mistake somewhere, right?
Maybe somebody will just come up with an elegant explanation of the underlying probability theory some time in the next few years, it'll go viral among the sorts of people who would otherwise have attempted anthropic reasoning, and the whole thing will go the way of geocentrism, but with fewer religiously-motivated defenders.