Jack comments on Even if you have a nail, not all hammers are the same - Less Wrong
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Comments (125)
"Trust experts except when you don't"?
"Don't trust experts; become one yourself"? Wouldn't that put me in the category of people-not-to-be-trusted? Isn't that what Phil is pointing out, that most people don't understand statistics? Why would I expect myself to be better at judging these kinds of problems than experts who spend their lives on it? Should I not expect myself to be just as bad at it, and potentially much worse (know enough to be dangerous)?
Yes. But it seems fundamental enough that experts should have caught it, therefore I am skeptical.
Scientists can be wrong. Certain kinds of science are more likely to involve screw-ups. Learn to identify these kinds of findings and learn to identify sources of screw-ups so you don't fall for them.
If two experts disagree about something and you want to evaluate the disagreement one way is to understand their arguments. Sometimes you can look into both sides and discover that one of them isn't really the expert you thought they were. You can evaluate the arguments or evaluate the expertise. I can't think of anything else.