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Kevin comments on Open Thread: April 2010 - Less Wrong
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Perhaps the folks at LW can help me clarify my own conflicting opinions on a matter I've been giving a bit of thought lately.
Until about the time I left for college, most of my views reflected those of my parents. It was a pretty common Republican party-line cluster, and I've got concerns that I have anchored at a point too close to favoring the death penalty than I should. I read studies about how capital punishment disproportionately harms minorities, and I think Robin Hanson had more to say about difference in social tier. Early in my college time, this sort of problem led me to reject the death penalty on practical grounds. Then, as I lost my religious views, I stopped seeing it as a punishment at all. I started to see it as a the same basic thing as putting down an aggressive dog. After all, dead people have a pretty encouraging recidivism rate.
I began to wonder if I could reject the death penalty on principle. A large swath of America believes that the words of the Declaration of Independence are as pertinent to our country as the Constitution. This would mean that we could disallow execution because it conflicts with our "inalienable" right to life. But then, I can't justify using the same argument as the people who try to prove that America is a Christian nation. As an interesting corollary, it seems that anyone citing the Declaration in this manner will have a very hard time also supporting the death penalty for this reason.
So basically, I think I would find the death penalty morally acceptable, but only in the hypothetical realm of virtual certainty that the inmate is guilty of a heinous crime. And I have no bound for what that virtual certainty is. Certainly a 5% chance of being falsely accused is too high. I wouldn't kill one innocent man to rid the world of 19 bad ones. But then, I would kill an innocent person to stop a billion headaches (an example I just read in Steven Landsburg's The Big Questions), so I obviously don't demand 100% certainty.
It seems like I might be asking: "What are the chances that someone was falsely accused, given that they were accused of an execution-worthy crime?" And a follow-up "What is an acceptable chance for killing an innocent person?"
Can Bayes help here? I am eager to hear some actual opinions on this matter. So far I've come up with precious little when talking to friends and family.
There is strong Bayesian evidence that the USA has executed one innocent man. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cameron_Todd_Willingham By that I mean that an Amanda Knox test type analysis would clearly show that Willingham is innocent, probably with greater certainty than when the Amanda Knox case was analyzed. Does knowing that the USA has indeed provably executed an innocent person change your opinion?
What are the practical advantages of death over life in prison? US law allows for true life without parole. Life in an isolated cell in a Supermax prison is continual torture -- it is not a light punishment by any means. Without a single advantage given for the death penalty over life in prison without parole, I think that ~100% certainty is needed for execution.
I am against the death penalty for regular murder and mass murder and aggravated rape. I am indifferent with regards to the death penalty for crimes against humanity as I recognize that symbolic execution could be appropriate for grave enough crimes.
Kevin, thank you for the specific example. It definitely strengthened my practical objection to the practice. I strongly suspect that the current number of false positives lies outside of my acceptance zone.
Rain, I agree that politics is a mind-killer, but thought it worthy of at least brushing the cobwebs off some cached thoughts. Good point about Nitrogen. I wonder why we choose gruesome methods when even CO would be cheap, easy and effective.
Morendil, I appreciate the other questions. You have a good point that if Omega were brought in on the justice system, it would definitely find better corrective measures than the kill command. I think Eliezer once talked about how predicting your possible future decisions is basically the same as deciding. In that case, I already changed many things on this Big Question, and am just finally doing what I predicted I might do last time I gave any thought to capital punishment. Which happened to be at the conclusion (if there is such a thing) of a murder trial where my friend was a victim. Lots of bias to overcome there, methinks.
Unnamed, interesting points. I hadn't actually considered how similar life imprisonment is to execution, with regard to the pertinent facts. I was recently introduced to the concept of restorative justice which I think encompasses your article. I find it particularly appealing because it deals with what works, instead of worthless Calvinist ideals like punishment. From my understanding, execution only fulfills punishment in the most trivial of senses.
"Crimes against humanity" is one of the crimes that for most practical purposes means "... and lost".
Yup. Even though they'll never face charges, some of the winners are guilty as sin. And I mean that the Project for the New American Century was on the winning side of the war, their namesake mission has failed horribly.