saturn comments on Open Thread: April 2010 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: Unnamed 01 April 2010 03:21PM

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Comment author: saturn 07 April 2010 09:36:04AM 2 points [-]

It also makes you easily exploitable, since you'll always assume that your probability of winning any gamble is 50%.

Your probability of winning any two-sided bet is 50%, as long as you pick which side of the bet you take at random. A "rational ignoramus" who always had minimum confidence wouldn't accept any arrangement where the opponent got to pick which side of the bet to take.