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Douglas_Knight comments on Open Thread: April 2010 - Less Wrong
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Is there any evidence that Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is anything else than a total fraud?
Am I missing something here?
I've heard claims that his "general model of international conflict" has been independently tested by the CIA and some other organization to 90% accuracy, but haven't seen any details of any of these tests.
Oh he gives plenty of such claims, not a single one of them are independently verifiable. You cannot access such report. This increases my estimation he's a fraud relative to not giving such claims in the first place.
At the Amazon link you provide, BBdM gives the full citation for the CIA report, among others:
Stanley Feder, "Factions and Policon: New Ways to Analyze Politics," in H. Bradford Westerfield, ed. Inside CIA's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal journal, 1955-1992 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1995)
It does not mention BBdM by name, but is about Policon, which I believe is the original name of his company.
I have not read the report and don't know if it supports him, but I think it's pretty common for people's lack of interest in such reports to create the illusion that they have been fabricated so difficulty finding them on the web isn't much evidence.
ETA: the other articles he mentions: a follow-up by Feder (gated) and an academic review (ungated).
ETA: I have still not read the report, but I should say that first page says exactly what he says it says: 90% accuracy, standard CIA methods also 90% accuracy, but his predictions are more precise.