gwern comments on Open Thread: April 2010 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: Unnamed 01 April 2010 03:21PM

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Comment author: gwern 10 April 2010 03:05:34AM 0 points [-]

I don't think they're that vague and obvious.

  • No nukes was something of a surprise to many people when that NIE came out
  • the loss of Ahmadinejad power prediction is nontrivial. I, and most others, I think, would have predicted an increase.
  • The noone-endorsing-nukes 2011 prediction is also significant, if heavily correlated with Ahmadinejad losing some power.
Comment author: taw 10 April 2010 11:13:36AM 0 points [-]

He predicts "Ahmedinijad will lose influence and the mullahs will become slightly more influential", not loss of office - which is not testable.

All Iranian officials have claimed endlessly that their program is "civilian only" etc. - it would be a huge surprise if they made a sudden reversal.

If someone expected Iran to have had nukes, they have a serious prediction problems. The only people "expecting" that were the same who were expecting Saddam to have nukes.

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