He predicts "Ahmedinijad will lose influence and the mullahs will become slightly more influential", not loss of office - which is not testable.

All Iranian officials have claimed endlessly that their program is "civilian only" etc. - it would be a huge surprise if they made a sudden reversal.

If someone expected Iran to have had nukes, they have a serious prediction problems. The only people "expecting" that were the same who were expecting Saddam to have nukes.