There is no God's view to define the truth, and Faith to attain it. You only get to use your own eyes. If I predict a fair coin will come up "heads", and you predict it'll come up "tails", and it does come up "tails", who was closer to the truth? The truth of such a prediction is not in how well it aligns with the outcome, but in how well it takes into account available information, how well it processes the state of uncertainty. What should be believed given the available information and what is actually true are two separate questions, and the latter question is never asked, as you never have all the information, only some state of uncertainty. Reality is not transparent, it's not possible to glimpse the hidden truth, only to cope with uncertainty. Confuse the two at your own peril.
I'm so confused, I can't even tell if we disagree. What I am thinking of is essentially the argument in Eliezer Yudkowsky's "Inductive Bias":
...The more inductive bias you have, the faster you learn to predict the future, but only if your inductive bias does in fact concentrate more probability into sequences of observations that actually occur. If your inductive bias concentrates probability into sequences that don't occur, this diverts probability mass from sequences that do occur, and you will learn more slowly, or not learn at all, or even -
This is our monthly thread for collecting these little gems and pearls of wisdom, rationality-related quotes you've seen recently, or had stored in your quotesfile for ages, and which might be handy to link to in one of our discussions.