Matt_Simpson comments on Rationality quotes: April 2010 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: wnoise 01 April 2010 08:41PM

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Comment author: Matt_Simpson 07 April 2010 11:30:50PM *  0 points [-]

I think the ABC theory, at least in the form that I understand it, is onto something, but I don't think it's quite right. I think there should be less attention on the fed and more attention on the decision making of investors. And someone should just mathematicize the damn thing already.

Some Austrian influenced economists (but not Austrian) are convinced that the housing market is doomed to bubbles due to it's structure and the structure of the human mind. Basically, once prices start rising for an extended period of time, the human mind treats these prices as if they will continue rising EVEN IF they know that the prices are way higher than they should be, given the actual value of the asset. Many experiments have bore this out. Here's a link.

ETA: Just to clarity a bit, I do think it's possible - though difficult - to predict that a crisis is going to happen, and even have a decent idea of the magnitude. The timing, on the other hand, I think is nearly impossible to get right with any precision.