Jennifer, here is where orthonormal seems to say where exactly Marken overfit the data.
(Orthonormal might not have seen your comment because you didn't post it in reply to one of his/hers.)
[ETA: Nevermind. Looks like the date of orthonormal's last comment is after yours, so he/she probably saw it.]
This is our monthly thread for collecting these little gems and pearls of wisdom, rationality-related quotes you've seen recently, or had stored in your quotesfile for ages, and which might be handy to link to in one of our discussions.