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Unknowns comments on Late Great Filter Is Not Bad News - Less Wrong
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If you are a heroic individual and a perfect predictor says that you will go on a dangerous quest, you will go on a dangerous quest even if there is a significant probability that you will not go. After all many things happen that had low probabilities.
Contradiction. If a perfect predictor predicts that you will go on a dangerous quest, then the probability of you not going on a dangerous quest is 0%, which is not "significant".
There may be a significant probability apart from the fact that a perfect predictor predicted it. You might as well say that either you will go or you will not, so the probability is either 100% or 0%.
"There may be a significant probability apart from the fact that a perfect predictor predicted it. "
I do not understand your sentence.
"You might as well say that either you will go or you will not, so the probability is either 100% or 0%."
Exactly. Given omniscience about event X, the probability of event X is always either 100% or 0%. If we got a perfect psychic to predict whether I would win the lottery tomorrow, the probability of me winning the lottery would be either 100% or 0% after the psychic made his prediction.
I was saying that taking into account everything you know except for the fact that a perfect predictor predicted something, there could be a significant probability.