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Psychohistorian comments on Late Great Filter Is Not Bad News - Less Wrong
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This seems centered around a false dichotomy. If you have to choose between an early and a late Great Filter, the later may well be preferable. But the presupposes it must be on or the other. In reality, there may be no Great Filter, or there may be a great filter of such a nature that it only allows linear expansion, or some other option we simply haven't thought of. Or there may be a really late great filter. Your reasoning presumes an early/late dichotomy that is overly simplistic.
I made that assumption because I was responding to two articles that both made that assumption, and I wanted to concentrate on a part of their reasoning apart from that assumption.