alyssavance comments on Late Great Filter Is Not Bad News - Less Wrong

14 Post author: Wei_Dai 04 April 2010 04:17AM

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Comment author: Nick_Tarleton 04 April 2010 04:26:16PM *  13 points [-]

It seems to me that viewing a late Great Filter to be worse news than an early Great Filter is another instance of the confusion and irrationality of SSA/SIA-style anthropic reasoning and subjective anticipation. If you anticipate anything, believing that the great filter is more likely to lie in the future means you have to anticipate a higher probability of experiencing doom.

Let's take this further: is there any reason, besides our obsession with subjective anticipation, to discuss whether a late great filter is 'good' or 'bad' news, over and above policy implications? Why would an idealized agent evaluate the utility of counterfactuals it knows it can't realize?

Comment author: Rain 04 April 2010 08:30:26PM 5 points [-]

over and above policy implications?

If we expect a late great filter, we may need to strive significantly harder to avoid it. The policy implications are staggering.