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RobinZ comments on Late Great Filter Is Not Bad News - Less Wrong
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Why is that good news, when it also implies that in the vast majority of worlds/branches, you lost the lottery? It only makes sense if, after learning that you won, you no longer care about the other copies of you that lost, but I think that kind of mind design is simply irrational, because it leads to time inconsistency.
It's good news because you just gained a big pile of utility last night.
Yes, learning that you're not very smart when drunk is bad news, but the money more than makes up for.
Wei_Dai is saying that all the other copies of you that didn't win lost more than enough utility to make up for it. This is far from a universally accepted utility measure, of course.
So Wei_Dai's saying the money doesn't more than make up for? That's clever, but I'm not sure it actually works.
Had the money more than made up for it, it would have been rational from a normal expected-utility perspective to play the lottery. My scenario was assuming that, with sufficient computational power, you would know that playing the lottery wasn't rational.
We're not disagreeing about the value of the lottery - it was, by stipulation, a losing bet - we are disagreeing about the proper attitude towards the news of having won the lottery.
I don't think I understand the difference in opinion well enough to discover the origin of it.
I must have misunderstood you, then. I think that we agree about having a positive attitude toward having won.