Tyrrell_McAllister comments on Late Great Filter Is Not Bad News - Less Wrong

14 Post author: Wei_Dai 04 April 2010 04:17AM

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Comment author: Wei_Dai 04 April 2010 11:07:57PM 1 point [-]

If you wake up in the morning to learn that you got drunk last night, played the lottery, and won, then this is good news.

Why is that good news, when it also implies that in the vast majority of worlds/branches, you lost the lottery? It only makes sense if, after learning that you won, you no longer care about the other copies of you that lost, but I think that kind of mind design is simply irrational, because it leads to time inconsistency.

Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 06 April 2010 11:59:24PM *  3 points [-]

Why is that good news, when it also implies that in the vast majority of worlds/branches, you lost the lottery? It only makes sense if, after learning that you won, you no longer care about the other copies of you that lost, but I think that kind of mind design is simply irrational, because it leads to time inconsistency.

I want to be careful to distinguish Many-Worlds (MW) branches from theoretical possibilities (with respect to my best theory). Events in MW-branches actually happen. Theoretical possibilities, however, may not. (I say this to clarify my position, which I know differs from yours. I am not here justifying these claims.)

My thought experiment was supposed to be about theoretical possibility, not about what happens in some MW-branches but not others.

But I'll recast the situation in terms MW-branches, because this is analogous to your scenario in your link. All of the MW-branches very probably exist, and I agree that I ought to care about them without regard to which one "I" am or will be subjectively experiencing.

So, if learning that I played and won the lottery in "my" MW-branch doesn't significantly change my expectation of the measures of MW-branches in which I play or win, then it is neither good news nor bad news.

However, as wnoise points out, some theoretical possibilities may happen in practically no MW-branches.

This brings us to theoretical possibilities. What are my expected measures of MW-branches in which I play and in which I win? If I learn news N that revises my expected measures in the right way, so that the total utility of all branches is greater, then N is good news. This is the kind of news that I was talking about, news that changes my expectations of which of the various theoretical possibilities are in fact realized.

Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 16 April 2010 08:52:29PM 0 points [-]

I'm very surprised that this was downvoted. I would appreciate an explanation of the downvote.