Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 are not isomorphic: the former is Newcomb-like and the latter is Solomon-like (see Eliezer's paper on TDT for the difference), i.e. in the former you can pre-commit to choose the late filter four years from now if you survive, whereas in the latter there's no such possibility. I'm still trying to work out what the implications of this are, though...