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Wei_Dai comments on Frequentist Magic vs. Bayesian Magic - Less Wrong
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Thank you for introducing me to the "universal prior".
The model I'd have used in explaining a sequence of such coin flips would indeed assume that the machine generates each coin independently as heads-biased with fixed probability H. But rather than fixing H=1/2, I'd have a prior distribution for H (probably uniform).
How superior would the universal prior be to this? I confess I can't do the math.
Eliezer also wrote a post about the universal prior, although he didn't use that name. See Occam's Razor.