Nick_Tarleton comments on Open Thread: April 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: Unnamed 08 April 2010 03:09AM

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Comment author: Amanojack 08 April 2010 01:24:13PM *  0 points [-]

First of all, I recommend clearing away the moral language (value, good, and must) unless you want certain perennial moral controversies to muddy the waters.

Example phrasings of the case you may be trying to make:

Bayesian predictions made from (100% certain) information set {N}U{M} are usually more accurate than those made from {N} alone

I suppose this is true.

Bayesian predictions made from (100% certain) information set {N}U{M} are always more accurate than those made from {N} alone

If you've ever done a jigsaw puzzle, you can probably think of a counterexample to this.

Comment author: Nick_Tarleton 08 April 2010 06:35:06PM 4 points [-]

Bayesian predictions made from (100% certain) information set {N}U{M} are always more accurate than those made from {N} alone

If you've ever done a jigsaw puzzle, you can probably think of a counterexample to this.

You've never done a jigsaw puzzle using optimal Bayesian methods.

Comment author: wedrifid 09 April 2010 05:32:55AM 0 points [-]

(Or he just believes you probably haven't!)