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taw comments on Preference utilitarian measure of historical welfare - Less Wrong
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Definitely not, I estimate that in most parallel universes such things didn't happen. They're very low likelihood was very strong expert consensus of the time, and we really don't have any new knowledge leading us to believe that they were likely.
Well they're at least more likely then our priors for them... they happened. Even with only a tiny prior that a coin is heads-biased, it landing heads is evidence for it.
You're privileging a hypothesis of events that happened. It was never 50% current world:50% something else - then add the fact that current world happened, and we're over 50% line.
Plenty of things which have happened had negligibly low probabilities.