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Academian comments on Preference utilitarian measure of historical welfare - Less Wrong
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Well they're at least more likely then our priors for them... they happened. Even with only a tiny prior that a coin is heads-biased, it landing heads is evidence for it.
You're privileging a hypothesis of events that happened. It was never 50% current world:50% something else - then add the fact that current world happened, and we're over 50% line.
Plenty of things which have happened had negligibly low probabilities.