neq1 comments on Self-indication assumption is wrong for interesting reasons - Less Wrong
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You may want to make a link to this post. There were a few different descriptions of why that problem (a very similar one) didn't work, and the one I pinpointed as "the pointer problem" is more or less that same as the one you pinpointed.
Perhaps we could call the error a "pre-selection bias"?
(In a separate daughter comment, I'll summarize the anthropic problem described in the other post, emphasizing the similarity of the problems and the solutions. )
Thanks for directing me to that post.
I think calling it 'pre-selection bias' makes sense. Would be good to have a name for it, is it's an error that is common and easy to miss.