neq1 comments on Self-indication assumption is wrong for interesting reasons - Less Wrong

6 Post author: neq1 16 April 2010 04:51AM

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Comment author: byrnema 16 April 2010 07:54:14PM *  2 points [-]

You may want to make a link to this post. There were a few different descriptions of why that problem (a very similar one) didn't work, and the one I pinpointed as "the pointer problem" is more or less that same as the one you pinpointed.

The flaw here is that we conditioned on person x existing, but person x only became of interest after we saw that they existed (peeked at the data).

Perhaps we could call the error a "pre-selection bias"?

(In a separate daughter comment, I'll summarize the anthropic problem described in the other post, emphasizing the similarity of the problems and the solutions. )

Comment author: neq1 17 April 2010 12:27:01AM 1 point [-]

Thanks for directing me to that post.

I think calling it 'pre-selection bias' makes sense. Would be good to have a name for it, is it's an error that is common and easy to miss.