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Comments (34)
Maybe I'm misunderstanding what kinds of cases you have in mind, but I would've guessed that the bias is in the opposite direction. People tend to play it safe, choosing inaction, avoiding the worst possible outcome, and not sticking their neck out in the way that could leave them most visibly and unambiguously wrong and open to criticism.
Could you give some specific examples of cases where people seem to be biased towards guessing?
I agree with this. For example, there was a discussion a while back on opt-in versus opt-out organ donation. Most LWers supported opt-out because the downside of making a mistake in opt-out is a dead person's preferences being accidentally violated, as opposed to the downside of making a mistake in opt-in, where someone dies because they don't get an organ.
Most people in the general population prefer opt-in, and the only reason I can think of is that they feel like bad consequences through inaction (not taking an organ that should be taken) is okay in a way that bad consequences through action (taking an organ that shouldn't be taken) is not.
Or, regarding literal multiple choice tests where the bias is the other way, see Shut Up And Guess.
Conversations with foreigners?