Alicorn comments on Multiple Choice - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Alicorn 17 May 2010 10:26PM

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Comment author: Blueberry 18 May 2010 02:51:25PM 5 points [-]

For instance, the ability to rule out one of four choices on a one-point question where a wrong answer costs a quarter point means that you should guess from the remaining three - the expected point value of this guess is positive. If you can rule out one of four choices and a wrong answer costs half a point, leave it blank.

If you can rule out one of four choices, you'll get the right answer 1/3 of the time, and a wrong answer 2/3 of the time, for an expected value of 1(1/3) - (1/2)(2/3) = 0, so it doesn't matter whether you guess or not.

Comment author: Alicorn 18 May 2010 06:03:07PM 0 points [-]

Filling in the bubble costs time.

Comment author: RobinZ 18 May 2010 06:10:40PM 3 points [-]

Inversely, filling in the bubble prevents you from getting one cell off for the following questions.

Comment author: bentarm 18 May 2010 10:07:48PM 1 point [-]

If you can firmly rule out one of the 4 options, it seems pretty unlikely that you are literally indifferent between the other three, so guessing is almost certainly positive expectation.