twanvl comments on Multiple Choice - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Alicorn 17 May 2010 10:26PM

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Comment author: twanvl 18 May 2010 11:06:43PM 1 point [-]

It was stated that a wrong answer costs a quarter point, so the expected value is 1(1/3) - (1/4)(2/3) = 1/6. A cost of 1/4 point for a wrong answer is too low though, since in that case the expected value of guessing from all four choices is still 1/16. The cost should be 1/3 to make that expectation equal 0.