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PeerInfinity comments on The Fundamental Question - Less Wrong
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um... can you please explain what the difference is, between "having some probability X of making the difference between success and failure, of achieving a positive Singularity" and "boosting the probability of a positive Singularity, by some amount Y"? To me, these two statements seem logically equivalent. Though I guess they focus on different details...
oh, I just noticed one obvious difference: X is not equal to Y
Yeah, what I wrote was intended as an alternative way of thinking about the situation that might make you feel better, rather than an accusation of wrongness.
I guess I'll still need to think about this some more...
some random observations:
if X > 0, then Y > 0
if Y > 0, then X > 0
I was about to question whether maybe X = Y after all, but further thought reveals that X isn't clearly defined, and I really would be better off focusing on Y, because Y is more clearly defined than X, and thinking about Y seems to trigger less panic than thinking about X.
So, yeah, thanks again for your comment. It was helpful. :)
No problem!