It has been claimed on this site that the fundamental question of rationality is "What do you believe, and why do you believe it?".
A good question it is, but I claim there is another of equal importance. I ask you, Less Wrong...
What are you doing?
And why are you doing it?
That's not an answer, because the probabilities of those things are not equal.
"God punishes us for believing" has a much lower probability, because no one believes it, while many people believe in Christianity.
"Muslims are right" could easily be more probable, but then there is a new Wager for becoming Muslim.
The probabilities simply do not balance perfectly. That is basically impossible.
Why does the probability have anything to do with the number of people who believe it?
There's then the problem that the expected value involves adding multiples of positive infinity (if you choose the right religion) to multiples of negative infinity (if you choose the wrong one), which gives you an u... (read more)