Matt_Stevenson comments on Eight Short Studies On Excuses - Less Wrong
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I've always liked the "drop the n lowest scores" strategy. For example, 10 assignments given with the lowest 2 scores ignored.
You are pre-committing to a set of rules, where any excuse would have a much lower probability of being true. Any excuse would need to include 3 excuses. Combining the probabilities of each of the excuses will likely bring the total under your acceptable threshold. Basically, it's lowering the likelihood that you will want to violate the rules.
You can also look at like this. Your model of people predicts that they are scoundrels, and will try to violate the rules, maximizing their utility at your expense. So build a system where procrastinators can maximize their utility at no expense to you.
"Any excuse would need to include 3 excuses." - not as such; there is then the possibility that someone will wish to have an excuse to turn in an assignment they expect to do well on late to replace the grade of one of the other assignments which they did poorly on (or had no excuse).