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gwern comments on Eight Short Studies On Excuses - Less Wrong
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What Thomas Schelling would do. Partly tongue-in-cheek.
The Clumsy Game-Player: agree to the deal, then perform an identical "finger slip" several turns later.
The Lazy Student, The Grieving Student, The Sports Fan: make the deadline for reports a curve instead of a cliff. Each day of delay costs some percentage of the grade.
The Murderous Husband: if you really don't want these things to happen, make the wife partially responsible for the murder in such cases, by law. (Or the lover, if the husband chooses to murder the wife.)
The Bellicose Dictator: publicly threaten sanctions unless the invading army withdraws immediately. Do this before any negotiations.
The Peyote-Popping Native, The Well-Disguised Atheist: when the native first comes to you, offer to balance out the permission to smoke peyote with some sanction against the Native American church. Then the atheists won't bother asking for a free lunch.
Hm, I don't see how this one works. Isn't a threat of sanctions and invasion the standing order of the day?
Nope. In the story Ban Ki-moon phones the dictator first, before publicly announcing sanctions. This is a mistake.
Yes, but I mean doesn't the real world UN have standing orders about invasions? I thought the UN charter mandated defense of its members.
The few examples of UN lead responses to invasions that worked typically involved great powers backstopping the response. UN members are reluctant to expend blood and treasure without getting something in return. I think the only time it worked as intended was the Korean war, and that's because Stalin was sitting out for a bit.