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nick012000 comments on Eight Short Studies On Excuses - Less Wrong
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The first thing I thought when I read this first example was "didn't Axelrod discuss the issue of the IPD with noise in his book?" the answer, it seems, is yes but not in his book, (PDF warning!). Essentially they seem to come the conclusion that forgiving the finger slip is optimal if it doesn't happen very often (for their particular choices of values <=1% of the time). Otherwise you should have the strategy where you forgive the opponent if they punish you for a finger slip, but play TFT otherwise.
A bias I've noticed: People are a lot more likely to believe a bad event which was claimed to be an accident actually was an accident if it was done by someone you feel allied with, and to believe it was malice or culpable negligence if it was done by someone you already mistrust.
It's actually rather a hard call if you don't have solid information.
Witness the 9/11 truthers.