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TobyBartels comments on Eight Short Studies On Excuses - Less Wrong
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In "Predictably Irrational", they mention a study (don't have the book with me, can't be more specific) where a teacher assigns three projects, due at various points throughout the year. The students do relatively well.
In another class the same teacher assigns three projects which can be turned in whenever the students want. The students in this class do quite a bit worse than the first students because they're procrastinating and do all three projects the last week.
In yet another condition, students are allowed to turn in projects at any time during the year, but they're also allowed to voluntarily pre-commit to a due date at the beginning of the year (they fail the project if they don't have it in by their own due date). In this condition, the students who pre-committed did as well as the students in the first class, and the students who didn't pre-commit did as poorly as the students in the second class.
Based on that study, I predict your students would do better if you gave them assigned due dates.
I do give them assigned due dates, actually; I just make it clear to everyone that I'll accept arbitrarily late work without penalty. I make a show of collecting papers on the date they're due. About 80--90% of the students turn in their work on the due date.
Adding to the incentive scheme here is the fact that the classwork builds on earlier work, so if they just procrastinate for a few weeks, they'll be in a pretty dire situation. If they have to go see a funeral or a concert, or they've been really busy some week with exams or a big project for another class, or whatever, then my method gives them enough flexibility for that, but the great majority of people do not procrastinate the way you might predict.
I guess you could call this system "obviously fictitious due dates". Everybody knows that the due dates are made of handwaving and rainbows, but that doesn't make them much less effective. And this way I don't have to listen to any damn excuses, and my students don't have to think of any; I just smile and recommend catching up before next week.
I'm not quite as flexible as you; my rule is that you can turn it in late (with no penalty) until the day that I return the graded work (which I will delay upon request). I put in this restriction only to avoid the big pile of late papers at the end of the term, which seems to be less of a hassle for you than it is for me. I get similar results.
And yet, there are always a few students who just do not grasp how it works. I get ‘I'm sorry that I missed class yesterday; can I still turn the assignment in today?’ a lot. So ‘obviously fictitious due dates’ is sadly an exaggeration.