RobinZ comments on Navigating disagreement: How to keep your eye on the evidence - Less Wrong

37 Post author: AnnaSalamon 24 April 2010 10:47PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (72)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: RobinZ 24 April 2010 11:46:48PM 1 point [-]

Before reading your answer: Human beings are bad at estimating volumes, as opposed to lengths. I would form my estimate by observing the apparent density of jellybean in the jar (e.g. by examining a square centimeter cross-section), observing the dimensions, and multiplying. Then, on the second stage, I would discard estimates which are radically different from mine (cutoff to be chosen based on observed distribution), and take the mean of the remaining. I would allow myself to be influenced in my choice of data to include by those whose data I was already inclined to include in my average.

After reading your answer: Should I notice an apparent and popular upweighting of certain responses such as you suggest, I would increase the weight of those in my average.