jimrandomh comments on Navigating disagreement: How to keep your eye on the evidence - Less Wrong

37 Post author: AnnaSalamon 24 April 2010 10:47PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (72)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: jimrandomh 25 April 2010 01:29:56PM 5 points [-]

It matters how confident you are in the original information source, and how confident you are that it was relayed properly. Suppose the question you is "Will it rain tomorrow?" In the first scenario, you ask some people, and each one pulls out their phone, looks at it, and says "weather.com says yes". In this case, the probability that it will rain is almost exactly equal to the accuracy of the original information source, and the additional opinions add nothing. In the second scenario, you ask some people, and each of them says "I checked weather.com's forecast this morning, and I think it said yes." In this case, your estimate of the probability that it will rain is a bit lower, because they might have mis-remembered the forecast; but as you ask more people, your estimate should increase asymptotically towards your estimate of the forecast's accuracy.