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PhilGoetz comments on Navigating disagreement: How to keep your eye on the evidence - Less Wrong
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I entered such a contest as a child. I mentally divided the jar into its different conic sections, took a string and measured each section in units of jelly beans, then computed its volume in jelly beans.
I came in second. There's always someone whose wild guess is better than your best calculations.
So? You did far better than most of the people who made a wild guess.
How do you know it was a wild guess? And how many (possibly-)wildly-guessing competitors were there?