part 2: "So what an expert rationalist should do to avoid this overconfidence trap?"

Apologies for flooding the comments, but I wanted to separate the ideas so they can be discussed separately. The question is how to avoid overconfidence, and bias in general. Picking up from last time:

If we can identify a bias, presumably we can also identify the optimal outcome that would happen in the absence of such bias. If we can do that, can't we also constrain ourselves in such a way that we can achieve the optimal outcome despite giving in to the bias? For example, David Balan referenced his own softball game, in which he swings a half-second to early and has been unable to tell himself "swing .5 seconds later" with any success. My advice to him was to change his batting stance such that the biased swing still produces the optimal outcome.

This idea of "changing your stance" is especially useful in situations in which you can't constrain yourself in other ways: in situations in which you know you will be biased and can't avoid making decisions in such situations. David would have to avoid the game altogether to correct his bias, but that's akin to saying that the dead don't commit bias: by adjusting his stance he can stay in the game AND have the right outcome.

In contrast to constraining your possible set of actions to unbiased ones [as I suggested in my other comment] the other possible way to deal with it is to set your starting point [your "stance"] such that the biased action/decision gets you to the right place.