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RobinZ comments on But Somebody Would Have Noticed - Less Wrong
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Aside from outrageousness, another piece of "somebody would have noticed" is the cost of noticing. It would be expensive for Wednesday to become an atheist. It would be more expensive to try to deal with the consequences if the US government turns out to be behind 9/11.
Any thoughts about how to get heard if you're saying something superficially unlikely?
I've never tried to. Two factors in how much time I give a speaker to explain a superficially unlikely claim are (a) how intelligent they have shown themselves to be in the past and (b) how much I value their acquaintance.