Jack comments on But Somebody Would Have Noticed - Less Wrong

36 Post author: Alicorn 04 May 2010 06:56PM

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Comment author: Jack 04 May 2010 09:24:38PM *  3 points [-]

In most cases such claims imply different expectations about the future. For example, if I am certain I saw big foot I probably assign a higher probability to the discovery of physical evidence that would confirm its existence than you do. 9/11 truthers should be proposing wagers on the discovery of robust evidence, etc.

You'd probably need some neutral arbiter to adjudicate but that should be relatively easy. Making a wager will convince most people you aren't joking or lying. They might still think you're crazy... but if you aren't you'll make some nice money. Also, this makes the other person internalize the cost of not noticing.

Of course, if everyone thinks you're crazy then all else being equal you probably are crazy. You have to have really good evidence before you can conclude that it's everyone else who is out of their minds (which the contemporary atheist has done).