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Alicorn comments on But Somebody Would Have Noticed - Less Wrong
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People are asking for examples of the "Someone would have noticed" effect; I can't offhand supply one, but I myself dismiss most conspiracy theories with the related "Someone would have blabbed". If the Moon landings were a hoax, sheesh, you'd expect someone to have blown the whistle by now - someone, that is, who actually worked at NASA. But it may not be a good example, because that seems to me like a reasonable heuristic. :)
If someone told you that they worked at NASA during the moonshot, and that the whole thing was a fake, would you believe them?
Not right away. I'd want explanations for why they had never come forward before, explanations for why no one else had come forward. Other witnesses who would confirm their story or a good explanation of why such witnesses don't exist. I'd like an MRI to confirm they're describing events from memory. I'd like documents confirming the story. Some combination of these things could raise my probability estimation to belief-level. Frankly, it's such a complex conspiracy that a detailed account of how exactly it went down would put it on my radar.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
If they had it, yes. Not otherwise. This evidence would have to cover both the immediate claim (that they were working at NASA at that time) and the larger one (that the moon landing was faked). Evidence explaining why no one else ever came forward would be appreciated but not required if the other two things are present.