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Emile comments on But Somebody Would Have Noticed - Less Wrong
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The problem with the way a lot of people use that is that they compute P(someone noticed|it's true) using someone="anybody on earth", and P(you would have heard someone noticed|someone noticed) using someone="anyone among people they know well enough to talk about that".
Also "someone would have noticed" isn't the same thing as "someone would have noticed and talked about".