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roland comments on But Somebody Would Have Noticed - Less Wrong
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I don't see any sensible way in formulating or adjudicating such a wager.
Hows that? I gave two possibilities above. There are surely more events that you must think are more likely than I do, given your beliefs.
There may not be any such events that he thinks will happen in the near future if he thinks the conspiracy is powerful or competent enough.
Right, thats why I gave a long time horizon and offered him odds. I mean if the conspiracy is that strong maybe we won't feel like it is worthwhile to bet. But I could give him 50:1 odds or better depending on the details of the wager and still come out ahead. (ETA: We can't figure it out whether or not a bet is possible until we exchange probabilities)
Jack gave possible wagers. Another possible example would be something based on public opinion. Something like "By time T, the consensus view will be that the current accepted view of what happened on 9/11 is wrong." That wording could be made more precise but the basic idea would be clear. One could use it with a specific data point also such as the presence of explosives in WTC7.