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Sniffnoy comments on But Somebody Would Have Noticed - Less Wrong
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Jack gave possible wagers. Another possible example would be something based on public opinion. Something like "By time T, the consensus view will be that the current accepted view of what happened on 9/11 is wrong." That wording could be made more precise but the basic idea would be clear. One could use it with a specific data point also such as the presence of explosives in WTC7.