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JoshuaZ comments on But Somebody Would Have Noticed - Less Wrong
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There may not be any such events that he thinks will happen in the near future if he thinks the conspiracy is powerful or competent enough.
Right, thats why I gave a long time horizon and offered him odds. I mean if the conspiracy is that strong maybe we won't feel like it is worthwhile to bet. But I could give him 50:1 odds or better depending on the details of the wager and still come out ahead. (ETA: We can't figure it out whether or not a bet is possible until we exchange probabilities)