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orthonormal comments on But Somebody Would Have Noticed - Less Wrong
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People are asking for examples of the "Someone would have noticed" effect; I can't offhand supply one, but I myself dismiss most conspiracy theories with the related "Someone would have blabbed". If the Moon landings were a hoax, sheesh, you'd expect someone to have blown the whistle by now - someone, that is, who actually worked at NASA. But it may not be a good example, because that seems to me like a reasonable heuristic. :)
If the Moon landings had been a hoax, it's hard to see how they could have fooled the USSR (which presumably had telescopes good enough to see the actual site), nor why the Soviets would have played along. In general, a conspiracy theory has to hypothesize that everyone who'd be capable of noticing is in on the conspiracy, which gets pretty silly pretty quickly for the bigger ones.