PhilGoetz comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong

6 Post author: neq1 07 May 2010 02:34PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (335)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: PhilGoetz 07 May 2010 06:06:45PM *  1 point [-]

On a random waking moment, Monday preceded by heads is equally likely as Monday preceded by tails.

I think you're thinking of a similar problem that we discussed last year, which involves a forgetful driver who is driving past 1 to n intersections, and needs to turn left at at least one of them. That problem is different, because it's asking about the probability of turning left at least once over the course of his drive.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 07 May 2010 09:21:57PM 1 point [-]

The absent-minded driver is essentially the same problem, but it's easier to analyze because explicit payoff specification prompts you to estimate expected value of possible strategies. In estimating those strategies, we use the same probability model that would say "1/2" in the Beauty problem.