Vladimir_M comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong

6 Post author: neq1 07 May 2010 02:34PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_M 07 May 2010 08:13:07PM 4 points [-]

Let's look at the ultimate extreme version. Assume she's woken up once (or arbitrarily many non-zero times) for tails, and not at all for heads. Now the fact that she's been woken up implies tails with certainty. So if the answer remains 1/2 in the extreme versions, then there must be a discontinuous jump, rather than convergence, when the ratio of the number of awakenings for heads vs. tails tends towards zero.

Comment author: thomblake 07 May 2010 08:18:45PM 0 points [-]

Intuitively, this is very convincing. But it definitely doesn't prove anything by itself...