neq1 comments on Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!" - Less Wrong

6 Post author: neq1 07 May 2010 02:34PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (335)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: byrnema 07 May 2010 07:37:32PM *  -2 points [-]

Given that Beauty is being asked the question, the probability that heads had come up is 1/3. This doesn't mean the probability of heads itself is 1/3. So I think this is a confusion about what the question is asking. Is the question asking what is the probability of heads, or what is the probability of heads given an awakening?

Bayes theorem:

  • x = # of times awakened after heads
  • y = # of times awakened after tails
  • p(heads/awakened) = n(heads and awakened) / n(awakened) = x / (x+y)
  • Yields 1/3 when x=1 and y=2.

Where is the probability of heads? Actually we already assumed in the calculation above that p(heads) = 0.5. For a general biased coin, the calculation is slightly more complex:

  • p(H) =probability of heads
  • p(T) = probability of tails
  • x = # of times awakened after heads
  • y = # of times awakened after tails
  • p(heads/awakened) = n(heads and awakened) / n(awakened) = p(H)x / (p(H)x + p(T)y)
  • Yields 1/3 when x=1 and y=2 and p(H)=p(T)=0.5.

I'm leaving this comment because I think the equations help explain how the probability-of-heads and the probability-of-heads-given-awakening are inter-related but, obviously -- I know you know this already -- not the same thing.

Comment author: neq1 07 May 2010 08:20:49PM -1 points [-]

This is incorrect.

Given that Beauty is being asked the question, the probability that heads had come up is 1/2.

This is bayes' theorem:

p(H)=1/2

p(awakened|H)=p(awakened|T)=1

P(H|awakened)=p(awakened|H)P(H)/(p(awakened|H)p(H)+p(awakened|T)p(T))

which equals 1/2

Comment author: thomblake 07 May 2010 08:28:01PM 1 point [-]

By "awakened" here you mean "awakened at all". I think you've shown already that the probability that heads was flipped given that she was awakened at all is 1/2, since in both cases she's awakened at all and the probability of heads is 1/2. I think your dispute is with people who don't think "I was awakened at all" is all that Beauty knows when she wakes up.

Comment author: timtyler 10 May 2010 06:43:15AM 1 point [-]

Beauty also knows how many times she it likely to have been woken up when the coin lands heads - and the same for tails. She knew that from the start of the experiment.

Comment author: byrnema 07 May 2010 10:11:47PM *  0 points [-]

OK, I see now why you are emphasizing being awoken at all. That is the relevant event, because that is exactly what she experiences and all that she has to base her decision upon.

(But keep in mind that people are just busy answering different questions, they're not necessarily incorrect for answering a different question.)